The Papacy is not only a religious but also a political institution. The Pope has a significant influence on international relations, especially since in diplomatic missions, traditionally, the Roman nuncio – the ambassador – stands at the forefront of the college of other diplomats and sometimes occupies the respected position of dean. The political position of the Pope has an impact on the entire Christian world, therefore, who will be the next Bishop of Rome (another name for the Pope) is very important.
The election of the Pope is carried out by the College of Cardinals, which is called a conclave. It can meet from the 15th to the 20th day after the death of the Pope, although if the cardinals arrive in Rome earlier, it is allowed to start earlier.
Only those cardinals who are under the age of 80 have the right to participate in the secret ballot. Currently, 135 cardinals take part in the conclave. 90 votes, or two-thirds, are needed to elect a cardinal as pope. It is also worth noting that 108 out of 135 cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis, a significant part of whom share his position, so the chances of the progressive-liberal wing winning are high.
But the complete victory of one wing over the other may become a subject of controversy within the Vatican. That is why the victory of a moderate and conciliatory candidate is not ruled out, especially since no one names their candidacy in advance and many things are rearranged when voting on the spot for the first time.
Who is the most famous representative of each wing?
- The most popular candidate of the conservative wing is from Africa. He is Guinean Cardinal Robert Sara. He is a French-speaking, strictly conservative figure and speaks about the dangers posed by radical Islam and gender ideology. He has long been supported by conservative political figures and commentators (it does not matter whether they are Catholics or not).
- The most popular candidate of the liberal wing is Louis Antonio Tagalea from the Philippines. He is also nicknamed the Asian Francis, although he is even more liberal than Francis was. He advocates reforms within the church and the liberalization of strict doctrines.
- The most popular candidate of the moderate liberals is the leading Vatican diplomat and Secretary of State of Pope Francis, Pietro Parolin, who has been to Ukraine many times and openly calls for active involvement of the world. At this stage, he is considered the most realistic candidate for the papacy.
- There are many candidates preferred by moderate conservatives, but the front-runner is still Peter Erdoğan – a Hungarian cardinal. He is well known in Europe and is known to be highly charismatic.
Of course, these are only the cardinals with the best chance, but what will actually happen will only be decided on the spot when the vote is held. There are other potential candidates who have a chance of winning and it is impossible to predict the results. Among the further contenders is the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem Pierbattista Pizzaballa, who could become an acceptable candidate for everyone, but given his youth – he is 60 years old and has a high chance of a long papacy – he may not have much support. However it is quite possible for a relatively unknown or less likely cardinal to be selected as Pope – there have been many such cases in history.
The fact is that from a political point of view, the institution of the Papacy has never been straightforward: during the Cold War, a large role in mobilizing the anti-communist wing belonged to John Paul II – and now, against the backdrop of serious world changes, the authority of this institution is not insignificant.
