President Trump expressed hope that the negotiations with Ukraine and Iran will soon be successfully concluded. Successful negotiations are always based on interests and compromise. The Kremlin is not ready for compromise – Russia’s demands are more requirement of capitulation rather than peace negotiations.
Against the background that Russia is demanding the Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukraine’s non-membership in NATO and a limit on its armament and its type, there is currently little chance of successful conclusion of the peace negotiations.
A key factor that must be acknowledged is that the Kremlin does not want peace. There are several reasons for this:
- Russia is trying to create a precedent for a successful war of conquest;
- The Kremlin believes that a total victory in the war and the occupation of all or a large part of Ukraine are still possible;
- In Russia, serious discussions have begun on one interesting topic – the social, psychological and economic reintegration of the military, mobilized or conscripted who have been through the war will not happen soon. That is why they are not in a hurry to end the war quickly.
Also Ukraine does not want a peace that would make it lose its statehood or allow its adversary to wage another war. Europe does not want such a peace either, because a belligerent Russia will start a hybrid war against it.
The third issue is the most important – the successful completion of the negotiations also depends on how much the parties trust each other. Trust does not exist between Russia and Ukraine. In this changing world, the search for a solid guarantor and guarantee is excessive.
There is one further concerning consideration: during the negotiations, four regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson – are often mentioned, but for some reason Crimea is not mentioned so often anymore. From Trump’s recent comments, the direction seems to be that the US intends to resolve the Crimea issue in Russia’s favour. Such an intention will not help negotiation process.
Based on the above, it is difficult to imagine the end of the war at this stage, unless some large-scale or sudden change occurs on the front or in political terms.
P.S. A few months ago, the consensus often heard was: “Russia must be defeated in order for the existing international and legal order to survive.” Now, a different assessment is slowly emerging – the old order no longer exists and what the new order will be like depends on the outcome of the war.
